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View Poll Results: Should Britain leave the EU?
Yes 143 69.08%
No 50 24.15%
Not voting 14 6.76%
Voters: 207. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:05 PM   #201 (permalink)
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6-1 odds for the leave result, surely it can't be that long? Do you think the odds are the result of 'leave' voters placing a 'disappointment hedge' on with the bookies, and so the odds reflecting this one-way betting stream, or it just really is that clear cut?
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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:06 PM   #202 (permalink)
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6-1 odds for the leave result, surely it can't be that long? Do you think the odds are the result of 'leave' voters placing a 'disappointment hedge' on with the bookies, and so the odds reflecting this one-way betting stream, or it just really is that clear cut?
I had £12.35 in my PaddyPower account, so I threw that one at 6's
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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:16 PM   #203 (permalink)
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Bookmakers set their odds according to the total amount staked.

So if 1 person stakes £10 on remain and 10 people stake £1 on leave, they will set the odds at evens for each (leaving aside that they always over-round their book).

From what I've read, a lot more money has been staked on remain but a lot more people have bet on leave with smaller amounts.

The odds on WH went out to 7.0, but are now 5.5.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:25 PM   #204 (permalink)
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Voted In

after hearing Shelia Hancock on Jeremy Paxman show last night
was undecided till then .
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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:30 PM   #205 (permalink)
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Bookmakers set their odds according to the total amount staked.

So if 1 person stakes £10 on remain and 10 people stake £1 on leave, they will set the odds at evens for each (leaving aside that they always over-round their book).

From what I've read, a lot more money has been staked on remain but a lot more people have bet on leave with smaller amounts.

The odds on WH went out to 7.0, but are now 5.5.
Wouldn't put it past either camp to be using wealthy supporters to skew the betting odds. That said, we'll know when we see how close it is and which way it goes.
Unless remain have got a 5+point winning margin then I'd say the odds are manipulated.

That said, I can see remain getting a 5+ point lead. Think Jo Cox's brutal murder stopping the campaign meant leave lost their momentum.

Either way, it's all done now - I'm convinced the EU won't survive whatever happens due to the weight of it's own issues.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 03:42 PM   #206 (permalink)
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I've just looked up what Hills were offering for a Tory win at the GE last year : 5/1

But oddly, all I ever read on the internet is how the bookies are never wrong.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 04:14 PM   #207 (permalink)
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I was trying to look that up too but failed - thanks.

I was feeling negative given the expectation of the bookies, then also stumbled on the fact that it not one bet one vote but one pound one vote.

That makes me totally disregard the idea of following the money. The number of leave voters even at the bookies suggests it's worth fighting for. Despite my belief that we should leave and the straw poll amongst radio callers and friends, not to mention the poll on here, suggesting a leave landslide, I had resigned myself to it being a remain victory.

I'm now at least cautiously hopeful.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 04:27 PM   #208 (permalink)
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I myself have placed a small wager on Leave about 3 weeks ago.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 07:12 PM   #209 (permalink)
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All cast, local polling station has had a 66% turnout with 2.5 hours to go!

#Sovereignty
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Old 23rd June 2016, 08:53 PM   #210 (permalink)
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I myself have placed a small wager on Leave about 3 weeks ago.
What odds?
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Old 23rd June 2016, 09:32 PM   #211 (permalink)
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Here's what Adolf Hitler had to say about the referendum

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Old 23rd June 2016, 10:14 PM   #212 (permalink)
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Remain seems ahaead
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Old 23rd June 2016, 10:25 PM   #213 (permalink)
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Remain seems ahaead
Remain may have got it, but given no exit poll I've no idea how anyone has the faintest idea. Surely the last poll today of 48/52 is still well within the margin of error.

Turnout seems high, maybe they've run data on turnout and higher makes remain clearer for any given poll.
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Old 23rd June 2016, 10:43 PM   #214 (permalink)
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I was going to sat the same thing, no exit poll and no clue?.

Gibraltar obviously voted in but a long night to go..
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Old 23rd June 2016, 10:52 PM   #215 (permalink)
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Hopefully Gibraltar is the start of good things to come tonight. If not I think a lovely place to move too!
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Old 23rd June 2016, 10:57 PM   #216 (permalink)
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If the UK votes to leave does this mean importing cars and parts from japan would no longer be subject to 10% EU duty?
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Old 23rd June 2016, 11:01 PM   #217 (permalink)
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first in newcastle-upon-tyne....

65.4K IN

63.6k OUT
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Old 23rd June 2016, 11:18 PM   #218 (permalink)
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Leave is leading now
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Old 23rd June 2016, 11:28 PM   #219 (permalink)
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Should have just used GTR.CO.UK as the official prediction
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Old 23rd June 2016, 11:51 PM   #220 (permalink)
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Back to in leading. When it gets to London in will have a huge lead I think.
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