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Old 8th May 2017, 06:28 PM   #1 (permalink)
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What's a 3 year old MY17 likely to be worth?

Balloon of £44,566

A 3 year old MY17 should definitely be worth more than the balloon figure but realistically given previous trends on CBA and DBA cars, how much more do we think?

Given the R36 will likely be positioned in a different pricing point, should help the R35 range stay 'competitive' no?

Look forward to your opinions
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Old 8th May 2017, 07:48 PM   #2 (permalink)
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The lower balloon is due to the bubble bursting on supercars in the financial crash leaving the finance companies hung out to dry. Its not an indicator of the future value, its just how much risk they are willing to defer.
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Old 8th May 2017, 07:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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The lower balloon is due to the bubble bursting on supercars in the financial crash leaving the finance companies hung out to dry. Its not an indicator of the future value, its just how much risk they are willing to defer.
I get that what I want to guage is how much equity would I likely have at the end of my 3 year term given the stated balloon?
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I would say purchase price now from a dealer : £80k.

Purchase price in March 2020 from a dealer for the 3 year old car : 58/59k in A1 condition with good tyres/brakes and 15k miles.

If you try to sell it privately more like 55k. If you cover more than 10k miles per year, less again, probably 52/53k.
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:08 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Btw, when I say purchase price, I mean that's what the dealer will have it up for, he'll probably offer you up to 10k less, meaning a private sale would be the best option.
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:56 PM   #6 (permalink)
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The cynic in me sees the GFV as a way for Finance companies to get you paying interest on a greater % of the car's value.

Greater interest charges means greater profit for them.
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:56 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I'd would expect at 3 years old they would be around 55k mark depending on mileage and condition

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Old 8th May 2017, 08:57 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The cynic in me sees the GFV as a way for Finance companies to get you paying interest on a greater % of the car's value.

Greater interest charges means greater profit for them.
2.9% is by far the cheapest I have found for any performance car, makes the MY17 a lot more attractive
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:04 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I'm thinking they will hold their value well as the 36 is going to be very highly priced. I could see even £58k ++
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:55 PM   #10 (permalink)
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The cynic in me sees the GFV as a way for Finance companies to get you paying interest on a greater % of the car's value.

Greater interest charges means greater profit for them.

Why would you even be cynical on it

That simply is the business model.

Get people into expensive cars they couldnt afford otherwise and give them a huge ass loan so they can earn the interest on said huge ass loan.
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Old 9th May 2017, 12:49 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I'm thinking they will hold their value well as the 36 is going to be very highly priced. I could see even £58k ++
Yep, probably the forecourt price on a 3 year old low mileage MY17.

But the dealer will only offer 50k (probably less) to buy it from you. You then have to value it by what ever you can get by any means, which means selling privately, and private buyers with 55k cash are very hard to find, so typically to sell the car you need to knock off the best part of 10% of forecourt value, and brace yourself for a flood of piss taking offers. Been there done that, lol
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Old 9th May 2017, 06:14 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Surely a low gfv actually reduces the total amount of interest you pay?

You pay interest on the total amount outstanding at all times. If your gfv is lower then in the same, say, three year period your monthly payments must contain a higher proportion of capital repayment. That means at every point in time over the three years, for the same interest rate, if you've paid more capital, then the capital is lower so the interest is lower.

Low gfv means total cost of finance is lower surely?
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Old 9th May 2017, 06:20 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Why would you even be cynical on it

That simply is the business model.

Get people into expensive cars they couldnt afford otherwise and give them a huge ass loan so they can earn the interest on said huge ass loan.
You missed out the last bit.

When people with big balloons get to the end of the term and hand the car back or sell they have no nice car and no money for a nice car, so rather than take a step down to a normal car they do the same deal again.

The intention is to create a circle where the person can drive a car they wouldn't normally be afford to buy time after time.
So years and years of high balloons and interest payments on all the unpaid capital.

That's the typical PCP model.

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Surely a low gfv actually reduces the total amount of interest you pay?

You pay interest on the total amount outstanding at all times. If your gfv is lower then in the same, say, three year period your monthly payments must contain a higher proportion of capital repayment. That means at every point in time over the three years, for the same interest rate, if you've paid more capital, then the capital is lower so the interest is lower.

Low gfv means total cost of finance is lower surely?
Yes, the cost of finance is lower as less interest.
But more capital being paid off so overall you pay more in the short term and less in the long term.
A lot of people just want a low monthly payment so they can afford the car.
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Old 9th May 2017, 06:45 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Surely a low gfv actually reduces the total amount of interest you pay?

You pay interest on the total amount outstanding at all times. If your gfv is lower then in the same, say, three year period your monthly payments must contain a higher proportion of capital repayment. That means at every point in time over the three years, for the same interest rate, if you've paid more capital, then the capital is lower so the interest is lower.

Low gfv means total cost of finance is lower surely?
You're right right Adam, I was misunderstanding the PCP model. Just shows how long since I've financed a car that way!
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Old 13th May 2017, 11:48 AM   #15 (permalink)
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The reality is that at 2.9% apr ( circa 2% flat ) you'd have to be pretty mad to pay cash ( or have so much of it you don't care. ) It's super easy to get 5% on the money and fairly easy to get double that.
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Old 13th May 2017, 07:47 PM   #16 (permalink)
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The reality is that at 2.9% apr ( circa 2% flat ) you'd have to be pretty mad to pay cash ( or have so much of it you don't care. ) It's super easy to get 5% on the money and fairly easy to get double that.
Agree you would have to be made in this era of borrow as much as possible and worry about it later and If I can't afford then I can just give back the goods!

Borrowing money just adds massively to our idebt and this got us deep in the shite back in 2008.

I must either be old school or completely thick but If you can't afford to pay upfront for personal purchases then you shouldn't have them in my opinion.
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Old 14th May 2017, 12:07 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Borrowing money just adds massively to our idebt and this got us deep in the shite back in 2008.

I must either be old school or completely thick but If you can't afford to pay upfront for personal purchases then you shouldn't have them in my opinion.
The few years before 2008, banks were lending money to buy to let landlords like it was monopoly money, nearly every new house being built was snapped up off the plans, banks were letting greedy buy to let landlords mortgage themselves over and over, fraudulently, and turning a blind eye.

You're just old school, like me, but that doesn't necessarily make us right, a certain amount of credit is a good thing, but the greedy banks/lenders always seem to cream the system.

Sidepipe, where do you get 5-10% easilly? It's almost impossible to get 2% safely, I assume you mean your stocks and shares have done well recently and you think that it's easy?
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Old 14th May 2017, 05:52 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Agree you would have to be made in this era of borrow as much as possible and worry about it later and If I can't afford then I can just give back the goods!

Borrowing money just adds massively to our idebt and this got us deep in the shite back in 2008.

I must either be old school or completely thick but If you can't afford to pay upfront for personal purchases then you shouldn't have them in my opinion.
Here we go again, I understand the notion of 'if you can't afford, don't buy it' but it's just too simplistic a viewpoint nowadays.

Do you have a mortgage?

In London, it's impossible to own a decent house outright. In fact, the wealthier people are the less likely it is that they have no mortgage. This is because we are in a low interest rate environment, money can grow more than the interest payments.

I am a wealth manager, so this is something I tackle for my clients everyday as part of what I do for a living.

Last 3 years, over 30% cumulative growth on their portfolios, taking a medium risk diversified asset allocated view has and will continue to work over the long term.

People who go for finance, not always because the can't afford to buy it outright, they just choose not to tie up cash in a depreciating asset.

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Old 14th May 2017, 06:42 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Here we go again, I understand the notion of 'if you can't afford, don't buy it' but it's just too simplistic a viewpoint nowadays.

Do you have a mortgage?

In London, it's impossible to own a decent house outright. In fact, the wealthier people are the less likely it is that they have no mortgage. This is because we are in a low interest rate environment, money can grow more than the interest payments.

I am a wealth manager, so this is something I tackle for my clients everyday as part of what I do for a living.

Last 3 years, over 30% cumulative growth on their portfolios, taking a medium risk diversified asset allocated view has and will continue to work over the long term.

People who go for finance, not always because the can't afford to buy it outright, they just choose not to tie up cash in a depreciating asset.

No I don't have a mortgage but I used to. A house is a necessity an expensive car is not!

It's my opinion only Chou. I got severely burned by during the latest recession and it came about by the never ending borrowing culture. We don't seemed to have learned.

The only reason new car sales have been high recently is down to borrowing money and it's too easy. I see why people do it but I just don't agree with it.
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Old 14th May 2017, 08:23 AM   #20 (permalink)
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No I don't have a mortgage but I used to. A house is a necessity an expensive car is not!

It's my opinion only Chou. I got severely burned by during the latest recession and it came about by the never ending borrowing culture. We don't seemed to have learned.

The only reason new car sales have been high recently is down to borrowing money and it's too easy. I see why people do it but I just don't agree with it.
You are entitled to your opinion of course, I am just saying that it is factually incorrect and old fashioned.

The average house price in London versus Dorset (I assume that is where you live) is chalk and cheese. The deposit alone required to purchase an equivalent house in Dorset is probably close to the outright value of a house in Dorset.

I am not having a dig, just stating facts.

A mortgage free home in and around London is rare unless it's is sub £500k or passed down through generations i.e. Mortgage eroded away over a long period of time.

Fact of the matter is, when buying expensive cars most financially savy individuals are more creative with their hard earned as their wealth portfolio tends to be more involved than just merely a mortgage, cash and some property.

Car sales have increased, in part to easier ways of getting into them (finance), but also because there are more wealthier people, more disposable cash and a changing of the times.

I agree with you that ease of finance has had a catastrophic impact on some people's lives but, like with anything, there has to be some self accountability on the people who take out debt without the means to service it.

Finance works for a lot of people, and does not work for others.

There is no right or wrong way of getting into a car.
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